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Bill makes a clever point or two and gets that MBA. That gets him a job in a prestigious consulting firm where, as in the case study classes back at Harvard, he goes from one situation to another, each time making a clever point or two concerning issues he recently knew nothing about, always leaving before the implementation begins. As this kind of experience pours in, it is not long before Bill becomes chief executive of a major appliance company. ) There he formulates a fancy high-tech strategy, which is implemented through a dramatic program of acquisitions.

The process’s methodologies became increasingly elaborate. Staff placed too much emphasis on analysis, too little on true strategic insights . . Strategic thinking became equated with strategic planning . . ” . . 3 Planning systems were virtually designed to produce no results . . The main design failure lay in denying, or diminishing, the planning role of the very executives whose mandate was to execute the strategy . . ” The other design fault was the failure to integrate the strategic planning system with the operations system, resulting in a strategy that did not drive action.

Others will make sense only in one or two. Once we’ve identified those implications that work in all of the scenarios, we get on with them in the confidence that we’re making better, more robust plans. The decisions that make sense in only one or some of the scenarios are tricky. For these we want to know the “early warning signs” that tell us those scenarios are beginning to unfold. Sometimes, the leading indicators for a given scenario are obvious, but often they are subtle. It may be some legislation, or technical breakthrough, or gradual social trend.

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A Course in Game Theory by Rubenstein


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